When will the real estate bubble break? Or is there any bubble?

February 3rd, 2007 Filed under English entries, Opinion

@ 2007-02-03 16:35

从明天起, 做一个幸福的人
喂马, 劈柴, 周游世界
从明天起, 关心粮食和蔬菜
我有一所房子, 面朝大海, 春暖花开从明天起, 和每一个亲人通信
告诉他们我的幸福
那幸福的闪电告诉我的
我将告诉每一个人

给每一条河每一座山取一个温暖的名字
陌生人, 我也为你祝福
愿你有一个灿烂的前程
愿你有情人终成眷属
愿你在尘世获的幸福
我也愿面朝大海, 春暖花开

–海子

Come across an article talking about the trend of real estate price. It argues that the price nowadays is abnormaly more than 15 times higher of the annual household income in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, compared to the 3~6 times price level in developed countries. In the author’s opinion, such a huge gap between the house price and household income is doomed to collaps into a moderate level, say 3~6 times over household income. This depicts a bright future for people like me who haven’t buy a house yet, the time the bubble breaks is the time we open our wallet. But is there a bubble? Some believe the high price will maintain a long time because of the rigid mass demand for new houses. Chinese consumers are different from its cocrespondents in west countries, a house of their own rather than a rented house is necessary. This means that most of us have the need to buy a house and thus the real estate developers can charge a high price.

Will the price drop or maintain high, what’s you opinion? I hope it will drop and I believe there’s quite a huge bubble which will be pricked through by the anger of people. From my common sense, if the people need to struggle the whole life to barely meet his basic necessay, the scioety is abnormal. A hamony society will not allow such kind of thing to be going on too long. If the government does’t see that 70% households can’t afford a house and quite a portion of real estates is of invest purpose, if the government doest’s here the anger voice of its people, people themself will do something to solve the problem.

When the pesents have nothing to eat they opened the landlords’ barn, don’t you remember?

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